In a recent study by Matthias Mengel, Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner entitled “Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action” published in the Journal Nature, the authors contend — sea levels will rise between 0.7 and 1.2 meters (27-47 inches) in the next two centuries even if governments end the fossil fuel era as committed to under the Paris climate agreement.
THE ABSTRACT
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.
A 3-foot rise in sea level would put much of the United States’ East Coast, Florida and New Orleans underwater.
3 Feet Rise in Sea Level Impact on the East Coast
Created with NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer
RESOURCES:
The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment
Rising Sea Level
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