by Daniel Brouse
April 27, 2025
The study “Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world” published in Nature Communications found climate change is not just causing more heatwaves or cold spells — it’s making the swings between extremes faster and more violent, posing a new, poorly understood threat to both people and ecosystems.
Climate change is causing sudden and extreme shifts in temperature — from very hot to very cold (or the reverse) — to happen more frequently, more intensely, and more quickly across much of the world. These “rapid temperature flips” are dangerous because they give people, ecosystems, and infrastructure little time to react.
Key Findings:
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Definition: A “rapid temperature flip” means a sudden shift from very warm (or cold) to the opposite extreme within five days.
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Past and Future Trends:
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Since 1961, more than 60% of global regions (defined by the IPCC) have already seen more frequent, stronger, and faster temperature flips.
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By 2071–2100 (under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario):
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Frequency will increase by 6.73–8.03%.
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Intensity will increase by 7.16–7.32%.
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Duration (time to flip) will decrease by 2.47–3.24%, meaning flips will happen even faster.
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Global Exposure:
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Human exposure to these events will more than double worldwide.
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Low-income countries will be hit much harder — their exposure could be 4 to 6.5 times higher than the global average.
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Mechanisms Behind Flips:
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Warm-to-cold flips tend to happen during wetter, cloudier conditions.
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Cold-to-warm flips are usually under drier, clearer skies.
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Flips are most common in the mid-latitudes (30°–60° North and South) — such as East Asia, North America, and South America — where weather systems and atmospheric waves (like Rossby waves) cause strong temperature shifts.
Real-World Examples:
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March 2012, North America: Premature crop blossoming during a false spring was destroyed by a sudden cold snap.
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September 2020, Rocky Mountains: A heatwave ended abruptly with snow and a >20°C drop in a single day.
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April 2021, Europe: Warm conditions flipped suddenly to frost, damaging crops.
Why This Matters:
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These sudden flips can cause severe damage to:
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Human health (heat stress, cold injuries)
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Agriculture (crop losses)
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Infrastructure (power outages, frozen pipes)
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Air quality and ecosystems (wildlife disruptions, plant damage)
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There’s currently very little research on rapid flips compared to heatwaves or cold snaps studied individually — a major knowledge gap.
Bottom Line:
Climate change is not just causing more heatwaves or cold spells — it’s making the swings between extremes faster and more violent, posing a new, poorly understood threat to both people and ecosystems. Urgent study and preparation are needed.