According to a new study published in the journal Nature, the disaster scenario of rising sea levels could play out much sooner than expected. Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica may become unstable in the next 30 to 50 years.
“We are not saying this is definitely going to happen,” said David Pollard, a researcher at Pennsylvania State University and a co-author of the new paper. “But I think we are pointing out that there’s a danger, and it should receive a lot more attention.”
If this does happen, sea levels could rise 6 feet in this century inundating coastal cities.
“You could think of all sorts of ways that we might duck this one,” said Richard B. Alley, a leading expert on glacial ice at Pennsylvania State University. “I’m hopeful that will happen. But given what we know, I don’t think we can tell people that we’re confident of that.”
In another study published in the journal Nature, scientists forecast “Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States”.
“Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most apparent climate change stressors facing human society. Although it is known that many people at present inhabit areas vulnerable to SLR few studies have accounted for ongoing population growth when assessing the potential magnitude of future impacts4. Here we address this issue by coupling a small-area population projection with a SLR vulnerability assessment across all United States coastal counties. We find that a 2100 SLR of 0.9 m places a land area projected to house 4.2 million people at risk of inundation, whereas 1.8 m affects 13.1 million people—approximately three times larger than indicated by current populations. These results suggest that the absence of protective measures could lead to US population movements of a magnitude similar to the twentieth century Great Migration of southern African-Americans. Furthermore, our population projection approach can be readily adapted to assess other hazards or to model future per capita economic impacts.”