by Daniel Brouse
June 13, 2025
The most recent geopolitical shock—marked by yet another bombing campaign with tragic civilian casualties, including children—once again shook global financial markets. While the human toll is heartbreaking, the market’s response offers a revealing glimpse into shifting investor psychology and the erosion of long-standing economic assumptions.
What Was Not Surprising:
The immediate market reaction followed a familiar pattern:
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Major stock market indexes dropped sharply, as expected during times of escalating global conflict.
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Defense contractors soared, including General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and BAE Systems (BAESY), reflecting investor bets on prolonged military engagement.
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The VIX volatility index spiked, signaling heightened fear and uncertainty.
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Oil prices surged, as conflict in key regions raised concerns over supply disruptions and energy security.
These responses are in line with historical precedent. When bombs fall, markets get jittery, investors retreat from risk, and defense and energy stocks rally.
What Was Surprising:
However, what didn’t happen is more significant than what did.
There was no flight to safety in the U.S. Treasury markets. Historically, Treasury securities—especially 10-year notes and longer-term bonds—rally during geopolitical crises, as investors seek the safety of stable, liquid government debt. But this time, Treasury prices fell, and yields rose.
This break from tradition is both unexpected and troubling. It suggests that U.S. government debt is no longer perceived as the safe haven it once was. Whether due to ballooning deficits, political instability, erosion of institutional trust, or the long-term effects of America’s increasingly isolationist and unilateral foreign policy, the failure of Treasuries to attract capital in a time of crisis is a flashing red warning sign.
A Broader Decline in Confidence?
This development may signal a deeper issue: the decline of American Exceptionalism. For decades, U.S. markets, institutions, and the dollar were seen as global anchors in times of chaos. But under the economic and geopolitical shadow of Trump-era policies—marked by trade wars, weakened alliances, and inward-looking nationalism—those anchors appear to be losing their grip.
If markets no longer reflexively turn to U.S. Treasuries in times of turmoil, it could indicate a long-term shift in global investor confidence. And if that’s the case, we are not just witnessing volatility—we may be entering a new paradigm in which America’s financial and geopolitical dominance is no longer taken for granted.