by Daniel Brouse
April 6, 2025
What are the chances of a recession?
It really comes down to how one defines a recession. Traditional recessions are often characterized by rising unemployment, but with Trump’s immigration policies severely restricting the labor force, the job market may appear tighter than usual — even as the underlying economy deteriorates.
When you factor in these artificial constraints on labor supply, there’s easily a 90%+ probability of a U.S. recession this year. And given the ripple effects of tariffs, trade wars, and global uncertainty, I’d estimate a 95% chance of a global recession as well. This won’t look like past recessions on the surface — but in terms of slowing growth, rising costs, reduced output, and widespread economic strain, it absolutely qualifies.
For the past several years, immigration has contributed roughly 80% of U.S. GDP growth. Even before factoring in the tariffs, the U.S. economy was already facing the prospect of slow — if not flat — growth this year. Now, with the addition of what amounts to the largest regressive tax increase in U.S. history, the outlook has gone from concerning to potentially catastrophic. While the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, the risks are clear: higher consumer prices, reduced purchasing power, supply chain disruptions, and broad-based economic strain — especially for lower- and middle-income households. The combination of anti-immigration policies choking labor supply and tariffs imposing massive new costs on consumers and businesses creates a perfect storm of stagnation and inflation. Together, these policies could produce the most damaging U.S. economy in over a century.