By Daniel Brouse, scientist and statistician
July 7, 2020
The Mortality Rate for COVID-19 in the State of Pennyslvania is 13.68%.
I grew weary of people trying to argue the mortality rate in the state of PA. I was being conservative and lazy… estimating it around 7.5% (deaths / cases = mortality rate). The science deniers were still telling me it is no worse than the flu. So, this is what I had to do.
I contacted the State of Pennsylvania and asked:
Can you tell me how PA is counting “cases” — 91,299 cases. Technically, traditionally… the mortality rate = deaths / cases.
A case: symptomatic individual that presents themselves to a healthcare facility/hospital. I can not find a definition of a “COVID case” on the PA website. It looks like we are counting all the asymptomatic people that are being tested? That is not how the mortality rate for the flu, nor any other disease, is calculated. Normally, with the flu and all other diseases, the infected are counted as “symptomatic presenting as a case in a healthcare facility.” It is a doctor’s “case”. That is not how the COVID mortality rate is being calculated. This is important because, if we deviate toward counting others as “infected”, we can never get an accurate accounting. We can never know the number of asymptomatic infected. That is why only symptomatic patients are, or should be, counted.
The State replied: “Positive viral lab tests = confirmed cases. They have also included 634 patients in the count who have a positive serology test and either COVID-19 symptoms or a high-risk exposure.”
So, to calculate an accurate mortality rate to compare to a mortality rate for the flu, I need to subtract out how many of the positive tests were from asymptomatic individuals, and then I need to estimate the time from “testing positive” to death.
The second part is easier. Average time from testing to death for most deaths is about 45 days, but some are hospitalized for 100 days after being symptomatic for days (like Nick Cordero at age 41). In an effort to pacify the conservatives, I’ll go with around 45 days.
45 days ago there was a total of 62,000 people testing positive.
Now, I’ll be even more conservative and say 80% of those tested were symptomatic.
62,000 x .8 = 49,600
The reported deaths as of today is 6,787.
6,787 deaths / 49,600 cases = 13.68% mortality rate for COVID-19 in the state of PA on 7/7/2020
For the most recent flu season there were 102 deaths out of 129,912 lab confirmed cases. (https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/Flu/Pages/2019-20-Flu.aspx)
102 deaths / 129,912 cases = .079% mortality rate for the flu in the state of PA on 7/7/2020
MORTALITY RATES IN THE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA
COVID-19 = 13.68%
Flu = .079%
More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S (May 6, 2021 / IHME)