by Daniel Brouse
October 11, 2024
What is the past, present and future of climate change?
I originated the hypothesis of the non-linear acceleration of climate change in the 1990s. By the early 2000s, that hypothesis evolved into established climate theory and is now widely recognized as scientific fact. My lab partner, a Doctor of Physics from Ohio State, and I teamed up in the ’90s. He provided crucial evidence to support the hypothesis. Since then, we’ve observed that the doubling time for climate change impacts—how quickly the effects intensify—has dropped dramatically. Initially, the doubling time was around 100 years. However, over the last few decades, it has shortened to 10 years and more recently to just 2 years.
This means the damage from climate change this year is twice as bad as it was two years ago, and in another two years, it could be four times worse. Unfortunately, the sharp decrease in the doubling period doesn’t appear to be an anomaly, especially given the unprecedented events we’re witnessing this year, even during a La Niña phase. If this trend continues, the consequences will be far more devastating than originally anticipated.
Human-induced climate change is a dynamic element of an intricate and chaotic system, accelerating global warming in a complex and exponential manner. Over the period from 1992 to 2023 (update 2024), our climate model has presented evidence, proposed solutions, and engaged millions in understanding this escalating crisis. The data reveals that human activities are rapidly deteriorating our environment.
Our climate model employs chaos theory to assess human impacts. Global warming is driven by increased thermal energy within the climate system, a complex web of interconnected subsystems. Previous models often failed to account for “social-ecological systems,” where human activity significantly alters climate dynamics.
Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. Identifying and understanding these tipping points is crucial for climate science and policymaking. Crossing multiple tipping points has led to the domino effect, resulting in a much more rapid and severe climate change than currently projected.
Push a glass toward the edge of a table and eventually it will fall off on its own. No matter how slowly or meticulously you push… no matter how you weight or fill the glass, it will reach a tipping point and fall off before being pushed completely off the table. No matter whether you believe the glass is half-empty or half-full, when the tipping point is reached it will plummet out-of-control to its end. This is science not fate, faith, nor belief. Human induced climate change has resulted in environmental tipping points being breached.