by Daniel Brouse
Warmest October on Record — 2026 Virtually Certain to Exceed 1.5°C
The 1.5°C threshold represents a critical point in the activation, coupling, and amplification of climate feedbacks. We have already observed the predicted outcomes. Now, the global temperature data is catching up with what the accelerating climate system has been telling us.
2026 is now virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, becoming only the second calendar year to cross that threshold after 2024. This prediction is based on ERA5 temperature data through October. 2026 is also most likely to become the second-warmest year on record, with approximately a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024, currently the warmest year on record.
Even more significant, the four-year average global temperature for 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
These findings come from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
This is no longer simply a projection of future warming. We are observing the consequences of an increasingly interconnected climate feedback system in real time.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-warmest-october-record-2026-virtually-certain-exceed-15degc
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